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Clear Creek ISD Responds to Demographic Report Questions
Clear Creek ISD Responds to Demographic Report Questions
League City, Texas- The Clear Creek Independent School District (CCISD) is confident in the demographic report developed by Templeton Demographics. A few parents have brought forward concerns regarding the methodology and accuracy of the 2011 Templeton Demographics report and software utilized by the School Boundary Advisory Committee (SBAC). The District and Templeton Demographics have investigated their concerns and determined their allegations are unfounded. The following information is intended to foster a better understanding of how projections are developed and how these projections are utilized in the school boundary process.
Vacant Developed Lots (VDL)
Much of the parents’ concerns focused on the use of Vacant Developed Lots (VDL) in the projections, specifically in the Lakes of South Shore. There is no question the Lakes of South Shore is close to build-out. The real enrollment growth for the current Mossman attendance zone is in the Mar Bella, Whispering Lakes and Hidden Lakes neighborhoods. All three of these neighborhoods are adjacent to the Education Village whereas the Lakes of South Shore is located across Highway 96.
For example: In 2009, 61 elementary-aged students attended Mossman Elementary from the Mar Bella subdivision. In 2011, 148 elementary-aged students attend Mossman Elementary from the Mar Bella subdivision. There are no indications that the numbers will decrease, especially since a group of parents spoke with the developer who indicated an additional 650 lots will be developed in the Mar Bella neighborhood alone. If Mar Bella constructs 650 new homes during the next five years and elementary projections are calculated using a conservative .25 students per home, this would result in 162 new elementary aged students in Mar Bella over the next 5 years. The 2016 enrollment projection for the proposed Mossman plan, as provided to SBAC by Templeton Demographics, is 822 students. The information introduced by the group of parents would actually increase this number by as many as 40 students over 5 years in just the Mar Bella area, with possible enrollment of over 860 students by 2016. In actuality, the information provided by the group of parents support Templeton’s demographic report. Additionally, this information indicates Templeton’s demographic projections may be on the conservative side.
Data Collection and Timing Concerns
Vacant developed lots were not miscounted. Templeton Demographics began collecting data well in advance of report delivery. The data utilized in the CCISD report is from a September 2011 Galveston County Appraisal District data download. Twenty-two of the 35 lots detailed in the report, developed by parents and delivered to the SBAC, referenced as closed or completed, were constructed after the school year had begun. It should also be noted that of the 13 homes that closed prior to the school year, seven of those homes yielded elementary-aged students. This is a yield of .54, an indication student yields may be increasing in that area.
It is important to note that VDLs are not the sole source of developing enrollment projections. Templeton Demographics enrollment forecasting methodology utilizes; VDLs, new home starts and closings data, future land use and land plans, historical cohort survival rates as well as professional judgment. Final projections are also reviewed at the planning area level prior to dissemination.
The parent group also brought forward allegations Templeton Demographics’ data was outdated and the report was not a true reflection of the growth in the Mossman attendance zone. Templeton Demographics provided the group clarification on the data collection process on January 19, 2012. Templeton Demographics has provided the District additional information which should offer further clarification on data collection, specifically the use of appraisal information. Appraisal data from Galveston County was downloaded in September 2011. The date was not referenced for the aerial photography utilized in the Templeton Demographics report. The Galveston County Appraisal District updates its Geographic Information System (GIS) in April and September. However, there is always a lag time between completion, closing and the update of tax records. For example, if you sell a home in July and close in August, there is a lag time before that paperwork moves from the mortgage company to the county appraisal; therefore it could be six months before the change is posted in mapping software. As a result, summer closings may not be reflected in the September GIS download from Galveston County Appraisal District. Data provided by the parent group indicated 13 homes built prior to September. In a review of student enrollment data, seven elementary students were identified residing in these 13 addresses. This confirms student yields are increasing and further supports the overall enrollment projections. As Templeton Demographics explained in its January 19, 2012 response to the parent group, student yields are not the sole indicators in determining projections. Student yields were provided to the District simply as a general understanding of neighborhood trends.
Projected Single-Family Housing Construction
The parent group has also alleged Templeton Demographics projections for new single-family home construction to be inconsistent between its 2009 demographic report and its 2011 demographic report. It should be noted that the 2011 report was an update, not a continuation, so data was not inconsistent but rather revised. This is not due to a lack of integrity on the part of Templeton Demographics but rather due to changes in the Houston housing market. The 2009 report indicated a forecast of 2,800 homes and 600 students in 10 years. This would translate to 280 homes and 60 additional students per year in the Mossman Elementary attendance zone. The 2011 report is an update and adjustments were made to the housing forecast following reviews of trends since the last report was completed. The 2011 report projects 1,100 homes and 191 students over the next 10 years. This adjustment is to account for the housing slowdown in the Houston area.
In conclusion, the Mossman Elementary attendance zone continues to perform very well, adding almost 200 students in 2 years, approximately 10% higher than forecasted in 2009. It should also be understood that Templeton Demographics did not provide the data used to form the original boundaries for Mossman Elementary in 2007.
